A Computer Model for Iran's 20 Year Gas Supply Demand Forecast
Since Iran has the world's second largest gas reserves – the majority of which remains untapped – many European and Asian countries are looking towards the country as a major source of gas. Iran has recognized the economic and political benefits of both utilizing its gas resources for domestic purposes and export of gas to international markets.
The objective of the Gas Supply and Demand Module is to evaluate Iran's gas balance until 2028 and determine the Islamic Republic's domestic gas requirements for various sectors of the economy, and the extent of the country's potential to export gas. The model and study have taken two years to complete and 25 experts from different disciplines have been involved in the effort. The main aim of the scope was to implement a dynamic study in which government policies are considered in both long-term and short-term forecasts.
The study has been divided into two main modules:
- Supply: non-associated and associated gas, gas gathering (flare reduction) projects, NGL plants, yet to find and imported gas
- Demand: residential & commercial, industry, power, petrochemical, transportation, gas export, gas injection, flared gas
With the involvement of a group of international experts and local university professors, each sector's behavioral study (determined by past data) and forecast results were assessed using two methodologies: (1) Time series and panel data models (2) Bottom-up methodology (reviewing existing and future planned projects). The outcome of the model is a user-friendly computer interface, which enables users to easily change variables, modify and alter the completion date of projects and define numerous scenarios to forecast Iran's gas balance.